• McLeod41

Series Preview - Tigers (26-40) @ Red Sox (36-31)

I have no time to write today, so this will be abbreviated. I am literally writing this in a meeting sitting next to a Director at my company, so I am putting my job on the line. Credit to me for even getting a blog up. I won't call myself a hero, but I will permit you to do so.

The Matchups

Monday, June 20th 7:10 PM - Alex Faedo (1-3 4.28 ERA) vs Josh Winckowski (1-1 4.50 ERA)

Tuesday, June 21st 7:10 PM - Beau Brieske (1-5 3.79 ERA) vs Rich Hill (2-4 4.42 ERA)

Wednesday, June 22nd 7:10 PM - Tarik Skubal (5-4 3.13 ERA) vs Michael Wacha (5-1 2.28 ERA)

The Predictions

I got a sweep. No ifs ands or buts about it. The Sox should sweep this series.

Faedo hasn't faced the Red Sox before. He is a filler guy for them and really shouldn't be in a starting role, but their hand is forced at this point with E-Rod being out for an undefined period of time. He has a 1.4 WHIP, but those are more Hs then Ws. When you talk about Wins Above Replacement, he is Replacement. Here is what he throws and his percentile rankings:

Fastball, Slider, Change. All pretty average speed. Mostly fastball, and it will come right down the dick:

I don't know why he doesn't throw his slider more, it looks like it is his best pitch with an xBA of .259 and 20.6 Put Away percentage. It also is placed extremely well:

I don't know though, I'm just an idiot blogger and have literally never thrown a slider in my life, but seems strange to me. Take the Sox -1.5 in this one and thank me later.

Brieske has also never faced the Sox. Still in his prospect status, the 2019 27th round pick has good movement and velocity on his fastball, but it doesn't so much translate to outs. He isn't going to get guys to chase, and he isn't going to get guys to strike out. He actually has similar numbers to Dakota Hudson from Saturday, in that he pitches to contact. However, he has an xSLG of .536, which lands him in the bottom 4% of the league. With Hill facing him, I feel comfortable with an over in this game.

We didn't see Skubal either in the first series, but he seems to be the best one they have going in this three game set. He has some fantastic percentile numbers, specifically in the BB% (90th percentile) and xERA (82nd percentile), but across the board he is impressive. He will occasionally miss a spot that will allow batters to size up the ball. His AvgEV is 90.1, which is slightly higher than MLB average. He throws his slider a ton, and will mix in his Fastball up in the zone to keep batters on their toes, but his changeup is really his Put Away pitch at a 37.3% Put Away percentage, and an xBA of .145. With him going up against Wacha, take the under.

So there it is. A quick breakdown of this series. Again, credit to me for getting this out there. I think I've gone 5-1 in my last 6 picks, planning on going 8-1 after this series. Have a good week everyone.

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